Pharmaceutical and biological industry: monthly price report of major raw materials.

October the main vitamin varieties price weak shock, some varieties are expected to raise prices. In October, the average transaction price of VE fell to 92.97 yuan/kg, which is at a low level in recent years. It is expected that a sharp drop is unlikely. The average transaction price of VA is about 116 yuan/kg, and the current quotation of Xincheng is 150 yuan/kg. It remains to be seen whether the future price can be implemented. Calcium pantothenate was affected by the fire in Shandong Xinfa factory. DSM and Xinfu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. increased their quotations by 10%, which has a certain price increase momentum in the short term. Among the other varieties, the prices of VB1, VK3 and VB2 fell slightly. In terms of VC prices, the Health Network recently reported that Shiyao Group will raise the VC quotation to 26 yuan/kg. Considering the current VC supply and demand pattern, the actual transaction situation still needs to be observed.

Antibiotic prices remain weak and volatile. Of the seven major antibiotics and their intermediates we tracked this month, penicillin industrial salt, 7-ACA, and thiocyanate erythromycin prices fell slightly month-on-month, while the rest remained stable. We believe that last year, under the influence of the dual factors of drug price reduction and antibiotic classification management, the industry has excess capacity and channel inventory. Although this problem has been slightly alleviated this year, due to the long-term nature of resistance restriction, downstream demand has not been effectively enlarged, and in the long run, there is still excess capacity. Therefore, we expect that although there is little room for the overall price of antibiotic APIs and intermediates to fall sharply in the future, there is also limited room for subsequent rebound.

The high price of hormone intermediates has declined. Among the hormone intermediates we tracked this month, the price of saponin in October was 925000 yuan/ton, down 7.50 percent from the previous month, while the price of diene was 1.5 million yuan/ton, down 6.83 percent from the previous high. We believe that after the ups and downs of hormone products, the industry is maturing, product fluctuations are small, and the supply and demand of the raw material of dienes, yellow ginger, tends to balance. At present, the price of diene is at a historical high, and it is unlikely that it will continue to strengthen significantly in the future.

Societe Generale's point of view: We believe that although the quotations of some vitamin varieties have been repeated since this year, due to the current stable supply and demand in the industry, it is expected that the subsequent prices will not increase significantly and will still maintain range fluctuations. However, the prices of VE, VA, VB1 and calcium pantothenate may gradually warm up in the future, and there is a certain expectation of price increase. In the medium and long term, under the background of weak market demand and limited resistance, it is difficult for prices to continue to rise, and the possibility of continuing to operate at a low level is relatively high; hormone intermediates are unlikely to continue to strengthen significantly in the future as the supply and demand of turmeric stabilizes in the future. Recently, the high prices of saponin and diene have also declined. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest price trends.

Risk Warning: API prices are down, environmental protection requirements are increased, costs are rising, etc.